A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
